[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 22N36W TO 15N35W TO 10N34W MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGH TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM 05N TO 18N BETWEEN 26W AND 39W. NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 09N35W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SLOW ORGANIZATION OF
ONGOING CONVECTION. A SMALL EAST TO WEST RIBBON OF LOW DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR VALUES AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ENCOMPASS THE SYSTEM FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W TO
40W. THIS WILL RESULT IN FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N
BETWEEN 30W AND 39W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 18N57W TO 10N55W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE AXIS COINCIDES WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE PRECIPITATION AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE
LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 19N78W TO 11N81W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W
AND 83W. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD
IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE WAVE AXIS AND IS ANALYZED AS A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 10N81W.
THE WAVE ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST OF
THE WAVE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 85W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 21N91W TO 14N90W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL
ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO A TROUGH LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N16W 11N33W 09N37W 11N54W 09N67W
THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO 11N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 19W-30W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SE OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 27N81W. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS
MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 28N. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N95W AND IS PROVIDING THE
GULF W OF 93W WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES AS A
1013 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N95W. SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH NE OVER LOUISIANA AND TO THE SW OVER
INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO. HOWEVER...BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO NEAR 28N90W AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF ALONG 30N84W TO 27N88W
TO 23N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 30N84W TO 25N92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA.
THIS IS PROVIDING A RELATIVELY DRY AND SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND
BELIZE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 85W-89W. FARTHER TO THE SE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
S OF 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 85W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA...DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 74W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICAL W ATLC NEAR 18N55W. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW-LEVEL ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC WITH THE BASE DIPPING
TO 33N BETWEEN 64W-82W. SOUTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG
28N TO 65W. NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...A 1010 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 33N71W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG
29N76W TO 30N79W AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 32N81W. A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT WIND FIELD
SURROUNDS THE FRONT AND AREAS SOUTH TO 25N WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM 26N
TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 73W-80W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 46N31W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE HIGH ALONG 32N54W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR
22N72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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