[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD
10 KT OR LESS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 9N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N
TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND
34W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N54W 12N57W 5N58W
IN GUYANA MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE 22N44W
11N54W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ
PRECIPITATION ALSO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W FROM JAMAICA
SOUTHWARD...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE PRECIPITATION
THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER IS PROBABLY MOSTLY RELATED TO THE TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE STRONG PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO
THAT WAS IN EL SALVADOR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA HAS
DISSIPATED/WEAKENED.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE MAURITANIA COAST NEAR 18N16W TO 10N27W 9N33W 9N50W TO
10N57W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N
TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 96W AND
107W...MOSTLY ON TOP OF MEXICO AND A LITTLE BIT IN THE WESTERN
GULF WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER MEXICO FROM 20N
TO 26N BETWEEN 103W AND 109W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N88W. SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE IS THE TROUGH THAT SPANS THE
AREA FROM 22N70W IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO HAITI...TO A 14N77W
CYCLONIC CENTER...TOWARD THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN
73W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W
FROM JAMAICA SOUTHWARD...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLIER PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 30N67W TO 26N76W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N71W TO 28N76W AND BEYOND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
26N75W 29N70W BEYOND BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
BERMUDA FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC WAS 1.36 INCHES.
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 28N57W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N60W TO 19N62W
JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.
LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
30N BETWEEN 27W AND 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 22N44W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 11N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. BOTH TROUGHS ARE
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN
37W AND 64W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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