[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N37W 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO
THE NE GULF NEAR 30N84W TO 28N87W WHERE IT CONTINUES W-SW AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 27N90W 25N95W 20N96W AND INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAINLY COVERING THE GULF W OF 95W AND N OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-95W. THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY FALLS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA OVER THE
NW GULF BETWEEN A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO
NEAR 31N109W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SE
GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 85W-89W. OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
FIELDS DEPICT...A LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE
NW GULF WATERS TUESDAY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
SWEEPING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GALE
FORCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 27N E OF 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 72W ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM COSTA
RICA ALONG 85W TO WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION BRINGING MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE BASIN.
HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN ON FRESH TO
STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE
STRONGEST OF THESE TRADES ARE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD
AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE REMAINING MAINLY N OF 32N AND WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE
FRONT N OF 30N. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WATERS ARE CONTROLLED BY
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 32N58W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR
26N78W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 55N N OF 21N. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N47W
ALONG 30N50W TO 22N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 23N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 45W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N26W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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