[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302329
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N30W 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 16W-28W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE 2N-6N BETWEEN 28W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 31N86W 29N90W 23N96W 20N97W 22N100W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER N MEXICO AT 28N101W TIGHTENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. 20-25 KT N SURFACE FLOW IS BEHIND THE FRONT. 10-15 KT S
FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT...A 1003 MB LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF IN 24 HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...WARM FRONT...GALE FORCE WINDS...AND CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
6N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND
COSTA RICA S OF 11N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS S OF 13N AND E OF 66W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N55W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 32N46W TO 23N60W. A FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO E CUBA
NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 50W-57W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS S OF THE
AZORES NEAR 36N26W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N57W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA





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