[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1100 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N22W 5N35W 4N53W. ISOLATED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 11W-25W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 29W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS EMERGED OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS
EXTENDING FROM GALVESTON NEAR 29N94W TO S OF CORPUS CRISTI NEAR
27N97W TO INLAND MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 50 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NLY WINDS UP TO
20 KT ARE CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO REACH 30
KT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST UNITED STATES TO NRN TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH IN
THE WRN ATLC NEAR 32N57W. BESIDES NEAR THE FRONT...MOST OF THE AREA
IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
ERN CONUS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NRN GULF NOTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS N OF 25N. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE SE AND STALL TONIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
TEXAS COAST WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO
N OF HISPANIOLA TO E CUBA NEAR 19N75W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC ALONG 65W TO S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND A PAIR OF UPPER RIDGES OVER THE W
AND E CARIBBEAN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE FRONT NEAR
E CUBA TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB
HIGH NEAR 32N57W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 65W
IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS N OF 22N BETWEEN 58W-66W.
FARTHER E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N47W CONTINUING ALONG 25N56W
21N64W TO E CUBA NEAR 19N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED E OF THE
FRONT FROM 21N52W TO 27N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE
FRONT/TROUGH N OF 22N BETWEEN 42W-48W. THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AXIS ALONG 49W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 35N27W
BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 36W ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE E
PORTION OF THE ITCZ.

$$
WALTON





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