[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

9N13W 6N30W 5N40W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
3N52W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 4N38W 6N51W 10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
NO PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR THE
GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR THE END OF
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
SOUTH AMERICA NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA/
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA INTO THE WATERS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.
SOME RESIDUAL MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REACHES
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW COMES FROM THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE SURFACE FLOW IS CLEARLY CYCLONIC. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N80W...CURVING
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N86W. SHOWERS COVER
THE AREA FROM THE FRONT TO 20N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE WEST OF 54W. THE FLOW THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N/27N
CURVING NORTHEASTWARD IS RELATED TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N51W TO 26N57W TO 22N64W. THE FRONT CONTINUES AS
STATIONARY FROM 22N64W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 44W AND 49W.
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
FROM 21N75W IN BETWEEN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO
21N70W...FROM 21N70W TO 22N63W...FROM 22N60W TO 25N54W TO
28N50W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N48W 27N50W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N48W TO 20N50W...AMIDST A CYCLONIC
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N46W
14N40W 13N33W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 24N19W
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 20N30W 18N35W.

$$
MT







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