[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N25W 3N39W 3N53W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 17W-29W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N
BETWEEN 8W-13W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 16W-24W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 34W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER SRN ALABAMA NEAR 31N86W BRINGING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE
FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE WITH SE-S RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER
THE NW GULF TO NEAR 20 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 90W.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE
BASIN INCLUDING MUCH OF FLORIDA. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO
CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW
GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...THE STATIONARY FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N75W ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR19N82W TO
CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT AXIS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF
HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 83W-86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-81W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN WITH AXIS
ALONG 75W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA INDICATED BY
RADAR IMAGERY IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MUCH OF THE W ATLC IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SRN
ALABAMA...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W CONTINUING ALONG 26N60W TO
23N65W BECOMING STATIONARY TO E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N BETWEEN 49W-57W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 60W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 19N47W IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
16N-27N BETWEEN 42W-48W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 27N30W. THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE FAR E ATLC E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
FROM 32N10W TO 27N15W. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

$$
FORMOSA





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