[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 4N30W 5N52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 18W-22W...FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 22W-25W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 35W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W PRODUCING 15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A GOOD AMOUNT OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF W OF 84W. ANOTHER 1023 MB
HIGH IS INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N99W TIGHTENING THE SURFACE
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF FROM
20N-32N W OF 88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT TO INCLUDE FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT...SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH RETURN FLOW AND GRADUAL WARMING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS
ALONG 21N74W 18N80W 15N86W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT TO 20N. FURTHER
S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE SE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG
75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 77W-85W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA NEAR
21N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
28N.  W OF 72W TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 21N51W 12N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 45W-51W. A 1024
MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N31W. EXPECT...THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE E TO 31N53W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA





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