[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N15W 7N20W 3N30W 3N43W 3N51W. WEAK
TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N
BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NW COAST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...BRINGING GENTLE NE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER
TO MOST OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
A COOL AND DRIER AIR MASS AS NOTED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS WITH
NOTICEABLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA
WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 86W AND
97W. LOOK FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BEGINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BY EARLY TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO THE
N/CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO AFFECTING THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 75W. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN E OF 80W. MAINLY E-NE TRADE WINDS UP TO 30
KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY
SATURDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N68W CONTINUING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A
STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER
WITHIN 90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND FAR W ATLC WITH AXIS
ALONG 72W. FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N51W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 18N46W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 39W IS
ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-28N BETWEEN
42W-50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED W OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG 52W
FROM 11N-21N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE
AZORES.

$$
GARCIA/HUFFMAN





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