[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210602 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

9N13W 6N30W 7N43W INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 7N59W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 6N
BETWEEN 10W AND 32W...AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 46W AND 53W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 3N TO 12N. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 13N
BETWEEN 32W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SUPPORTS THE 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT ACCOMPANY IT.
THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 26N90W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COVER THE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING/WEAKENING AND
RE-DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N69W...
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 20N65W...AND TO 24N61W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE WIND FLOW ACROSS THIS BASIN IS WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT 200 MB AND HIGHER...AND LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC
FROM 500 MB TOWARD THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE FLOW...AS SEEN IN
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF YESTERDAY AND THE CURRENT
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY...IS LARGELY CYCLONIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N71W BEYOND 32N69W. THIS TROUGH
IS ON TOP OF A STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SYSTEM. THE TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N75W
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N56W 30N60W...AND THEN
TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW
AND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE AROUND THIS
CENTER COVER THE AREA FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 42W22W TO 31N45W
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 29N30W TO
28N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N40W TO A 1016 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N50W...TO 27N57W AND 30N63W.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N52W
25N31W 27N22W BEYOND 31N16W. AN UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N17W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
TO 8N26W.

$$
MT



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