[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

10N14W 7N27W 8N37W 8N50W 11N60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 9N
BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 35W...
AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 13N33W 6N40W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 10N53W 16N58W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM
6N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF TEXAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 28N
BETWEEN 95W AND 96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND REACHES 15N59W JUST OUTSIDE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N...CURVING NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 23N58W 21N61W 18N65W NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO...TO 16N66W...IN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
31N77W TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
31N74W TO 25N74W TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 21N77W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 31N71W.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE 31N74W 21N77W TROUGH. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
31N63W TO 23N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N54W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 57W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N33W TO 28N50W TO 30N63W. A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE IS
NEAR 27N50W...WITH A TROUGH FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 22N53W.
WAS  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO
30N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N32W
17N41W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SPINNING CYCLONICALLY
AROUND THIS TROUGH. A SECOND ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 16N46W 23N45W BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SPINNING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 11N39W.

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net