[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 192355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 9N33W 7N45W 12N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS FROM
5N-11N BETWEEN 27W-30W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 12N32W TO 5N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 32W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 44W-46W...FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 49W-51W...AND FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 54W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR 28N80W TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W. A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES NW TO THE COAST OF SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 26N97W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW GULF FROM 23N-27N W OF 90W. A
1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF N OF THE FRONTS.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER S GULF S OF THE FRONTS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE S GULF. EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF
NEAR 28N94W IN 24 HOURS WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE BASIN. PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA NAMELY OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 82W-86W...THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF
80W...AND INLAND FROM BELIZE S TO PANAMA. THE ITCZ ALSO
TRAVERSES NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA FROM TRINIDAD TO N COLOMBIA TO
PANAMA WITH BROKEN TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS PRODUCING SHOWERS E OF 64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE N OF 10N. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS S OF 10N DUE TO THE ITCZ. EXPECT... SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT...SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA ALONG 32N78W
28N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF IDA IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC ALONG 27N58W 20N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG
23N43W 18N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
23N34W 18N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS TROUGH
AXIS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N32W TO 30N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W ALONG
29N48W 30N60W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 36N10W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO SW OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N22W.

$$
FORMOSA




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