[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 162345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 8N12W AT THE AFRICA COAST TO 7N25W 5N35W 7N44W...INTO
FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N53W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 47W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 10N48W 7N45W 3N43W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT
IS INCLUDED IN THE ITCZ EASILY IS MORE RELATED TO THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A GREAT PLAINS DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WESTERN MISSOURI/
EASTERN KANSAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TO
THE TEXAS BIG BEND. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE MEXICO COAST GULF COAST NEAR 22N97W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF
87W. A COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY THE GREAT PLAINS TROUGH.
THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA
TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1007 MB REMNANT OF IDA THAT IS NEAR 27N67W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN IS PART OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N65W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 18N64W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 14N65W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
10N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN
60W AND 66W. CYCLONIC FLOW RELATED TO THIS TROUGH COVERS THE
AREA TO THE EAST OF 75W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 75W.
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...THAT ARE RELATED MOST PROBABLY TO THE
ITCZ...ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 74W...INCLUDING
PARTS OF NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.
THE DRY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W
ALSO IS CONFINING THESE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 22N65W BEYOND 18N64W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMNANT OF IDA HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY BUT SURELY. IT
IS NOW NEAR 27N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 27N66W 22N67W
TO 20N72W AT THE NORTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
31N22W TO 24N29W 19N34W TO 13N45W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 24N20W 20N35W 21N41W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 21N41W TO 25N48W 31N53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 22N46W 26N49W 29N52W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS FROM
12N TO 17N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W TO THE EAST OF THE 26N66W-TO-
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH MAY BE RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF
THE 16N46W AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM
24 HOURS AGO. THIS CENTER REALLY IS NOT APPARENT ANYMORE.

$$
MT



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