[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N25W 7N41W 6N45W 5N56W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
12W-30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 43W FROM 5N-13N WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING MAINLY E
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 32W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF OF
MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR
27N87W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND REGIONAL MODEL DATA
DEPICTING LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WITH
STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 15 KT OVER THE NW GULF WATERS. ALOFT...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD
TO THE MID-ATLC STATES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 90W AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS TO THE NE...SLY
RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SWLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NLY WINDS FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AS
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 11N W OF 70W REMAINS
IN PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-85W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W TO OVER NW VENEZUELA. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM THE W ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 21N66W TO
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SE OF
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70W. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS AIDING
TO SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 30N66W. A PRIMARY
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 30N62W ALONG
25N62W 20N67W TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 55W-66W. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N65W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LOCATED E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED
ABOVE. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED W OF THE MORE
ACTIVE BOUNDARY FROM 28N64W TO 24N67W AND THEN TO THE SE
BAHAMAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N17W
EXTENDING SW ALONG 24N26W TO 23N42W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY
ALONG 27N50W TO BEYOND 32N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY W OF 29W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 29W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE
ATLC WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N21W
DIPPING S-SW ALONG 30N24W TO 20N37W. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N37W TO 16N46W AND
CONTINUES TO SHEAR MOISTURE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ITCZ
FURTHER SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN



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