[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 9N39W 8N41W 7N48W 8N50W
7N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 18W-30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 40W FROM
5N-12N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
OCCURRING FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 31W-44W MAINLY E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 48W FROM 6N-12N WITH NO
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF OF
MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR
28N86W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURING LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WITH STRONGER SE
WINDS UP TO 20 KT OVER THE NW GULF WATERS. ALOFT...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE MID-ATLC STATES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 95W AS NOTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
TO THE NE...SLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WRN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NLY WINDS FOLLOWING BEHIND
THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 12N W OF 70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-85W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W
TO NEAR 11N68W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 30N66W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 30N64W ALONG 25N64W TO
THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
18N-32N BETWEEN 59W-67W. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N66W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING S
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE LOCATED E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO ENHANCING
THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE. FARTHER EAST...A
1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N25W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO 23N37W THEN WNW TO
27N49W BECOMING STATIONARY TO BEYOND 32N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
NE OF THE LOW CENTER A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO BEYOND 32N19W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. THIS LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE ATLC ACROSS
THE AZORES DIPPING TO NEAR 26N30W. IN THE TROPICS...A SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N35W TO 17N46W AND IS SHEARING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE E-NE SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN



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