[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 7N12W AT THE AFRICA COAST TO 5N18W TO 8N29W 8N41W...ACROSS
NORTHERN GUYANA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W. 10N24W
8N31W 7N40W 7N50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W.
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM 4N TO 11N...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 40W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N33W 10N37W 7N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MISSOURI TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TO SOUTH TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 26N. WESTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA TO THE SOUTH
OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH HAS
FORMED FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 22N97W
STRETCHING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 15N101W. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF JAMAICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...THANKS TO A RIDGE THAT RUNS
FROM NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ON TOP OF ITCZ SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE
WEST OF 76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER REMAIN
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS ARE ABOUT OFFSHORE ABOUT 45 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE EASTERN END OF THE
COUNTRY AND 70W...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W TO THE NORTH OF 20N. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH AND A STATIONARY FRONT. THE
TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO EXTREME EASTERN CUBA
TO WESTERN JAMAICA...TO THE ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA OF COLOMBIA.
THE STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO 20N82W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CELLS ARE IN NORTHERN
VENEZUELA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 28N74W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
AND BEYOND EASTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
A 995 MB STORM CENTER IS NEAR 33N74W. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
COMES FROM THIS CENTER AND REACHES 31N69W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N69W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W...
BEYOND 21N77W IN EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN
44W AND 72W. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N32W TO 30N34W 29N40W TO 31N45W. A WARM
FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 31N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N30W
29N34W 28N38W 27N42W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
20N20W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 13N33W.

$$
MT



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net