[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 122330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 12N16W AT THE AFRICA COAST TO 10N24W 8N31W 7N40W 7N50W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM
4N TO 6N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
20W AND THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND CUBA...INTO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA SUPPORTS TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT STRETCH
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO PARTS OF CUBA...ENDING IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE FIRST BOUNDARY IS A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 31N73W 23N76W 18N81W 13N83W. THE SECOND
BOUNDARY IS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT REPRESENTS A SECOND
PUSH OF COMPARATIVELY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA...TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N75W 26N79W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
20N87W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 86W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO THE WEST OF 31N69W 27N70W 24N71W
21N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO THE
WEST OF 20N75W 15N80W 12N81W 9N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
INCLUDING THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 61W INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 25N61W TO 21N61W...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N62W TO 10N61W. THIS FEATURE HAS WEAKENED
COMPARATIVELY SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO HOW IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO.
THE WEAKENING PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE AREA FROM 16N TO
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 66W AND 71W IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THIS TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EMANATES FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
SOUTH AMERICA AND IT CURVES TO 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE
61W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N20W TO 16N28W TO 11N34W.

$$
MT





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