[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 10N14W AT THE AFRICA COAST TO 7N30W 6N40W...INTO NORTHERN
FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
5N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 21W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W
AND 28W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N14W 7N30W 5N40W 6N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN FRENCH GUIANA...SURINAME...AND GUYANA FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN
52W AND 59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD
FRONT THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N78W TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W TO
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO NORTHERN COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR
16N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO 250 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 31N76W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO 22N80W IN
CUBA...TO 14N82W JUST TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
NICARAGUA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE COVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO BEHIND THE CURRENT COLD FRONT.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INCLUDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 65W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N63W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N65W TO 22N65W...INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N65W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA
ALONG 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1005 LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N67W TO 23N67W AND 20N67W. WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING BUT PERSISTING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. A SEPARATE SMALL-SCALE 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 17N83W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE
65W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 24N31W TO 18N33W
TO 10N33W. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD
FRONT REACHES 31N29W.

$$
MT


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