[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA IS INLAND CENTERED NEAR 30.8N 85.3W AT
11/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 50 NM WNW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE THE LATEST HPC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KWNH.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 6N35W 6N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W. CLUSTERS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN
25W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM TALLAHASSEE INTO THE GULF NEAR
30N84W CONTINUING ALONG 27N83W TO 21N87W AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
FRONT AND EXTEND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
THROUGH WESTERN CUBA TO THE NW BAHAMAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF WATERS. AT
THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONG NLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT
ARE FOUND AS DEPICTED BY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS
AN EARLIER 11/0100 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO 18N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING SE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 16N BETWEEN 79W-88W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. FARTHER
SOUTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N W OF 79W AND LIKELY INFLUENCED BY
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE E PACIFIC ITCZ
AXIS ALONG 8N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 23N66W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS
EXTEND INTO THE CARIBBEAN REGION...ONE ACROSS EASTERN
HISPANIOLA...AND THE OTHER THAT ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA
THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO 16N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N
OF 15N E OF 68W AND LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ALONG 67W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND INTO THE WRN ATLC WATERS FROM ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE SE CONUS N OF 28N W OF 75W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT LINKED TO THE REMNANT LOW OF
IDA CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA
THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS TO NEAR 32N70W IS ALSO ENHANCING THIS
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N64W WITH A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE OTHER SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N61W TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE NEAR 18N64W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 56W-66W
AND FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 65W-69W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM
THE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N61W TO 30N52W. UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL
CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS WELL AS MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 21N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 52W-65W. THE ENTIRE LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 23N66W. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N33W AND EXTENDS ALONG 30N TO 45W AND
THEN STATIONARY TO 52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF
THE FRONT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC..A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 37N16W.

$$
HUFFMAN


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