[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.6N 87.6W AT 10/1500
UTC OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE
ALABAMA AND ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF
PENSACOLA FLORIDA MOVING NE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
IDA IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF GOING EXTRATROPICAL AND IS DEVOID
OF DEEP CONVECTION. HEAVY RAINFALL IS WELL INLAND OVER ALABAMA
...AND GEORGIA. 30 KT WINDS COVER A LARGE AREA UP TO 150 NM N OF
THE CENTER.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N30W 7N50W 9N61W.
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 8W-17W...AND FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 20W-28W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 38W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IDA IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING A 1000 MB LOW CENTER WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT 1500 UTC A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N85W TO 28N85W 24N90W
20N93W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT
OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 83W-85W...AND FROM
23N-27N BETWEEN 83W-86W. 25 KT SE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...WHILE 10-15 KT N WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST TEXAS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
THE E GULF E OF 85W AND FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT...
LINGERING SHOWERS OR CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IN 24 HOURS WITH 20-25 KT N WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 20N62W 16N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER LAX THUS ONLY MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED W OF 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 76W-86W.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N84W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
23N67W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1011 MB LOW DEVELOPED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 24N62W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A WARM FRONT ALSO
EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N60W 30N47W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 51W-59W. A
1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF THE AZORES AT 37N17W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
22N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 21N50W. OVER THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 10N20W.

$$
FORMOSA






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