[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.3N 88.0W AT 10/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 25 MILES S OF MOBILE ALABAMA MOVING N AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IDA IS NOW COMPLETELY DEVOID OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS WELL INLAND OVER
MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER A LARGE
AREA UP TO 150 NM OF THE CENTER.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 7N23W 6N41W 9N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-14W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE
AFRICA AND FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 21W-30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 11N38W TO 5N40W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL BE MOVING INLAND SHORTLY. AND WILL NO
LONGER BE A MAJOR WEATHER MAKER. A 1011 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE W GULF NEAR 24N93W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE ALONG
25N88W TO JUST TO THE E OF IDA NEAR 29N86W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL US MOVING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF W OF
86W ADVECTING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE GULF W OF 86W AND N
OF 28N W OF 82W. THUS ONLY LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS COVER THE GULF N OF LOW/SURFACE TROUGH ABOVE. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR
HAVANA TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE MIDDLE FLORIDA
KEYS TO NEAR PALM BEACH AND INTO THE W ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRAILING TROPICAL STORM IDA WITHIN 120/150 NM OF
LINE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE W TIP OF CUBA TO NEAR 27N84W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE N GULF LATER TODAY TRAILING THE
REMNANTS OF IDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W ACROSS
CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR HAVANA PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 79W-85W. A
LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 78W PROVIDING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
E CUBA. THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO NEAR 13N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-19N E
OF 70W TO OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
S OF 12N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH WELL NE OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN ENTERS THE W ATLC
NEAR PALM BEACH FLORIDA NE TO BEYOND 32N77W. A LARGE UPPER LOW
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N64W COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN
55W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR
24N66W TO 30N52W. A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N42W EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N56W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS BOUNDARY
REMAINS N OF THE REGION. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E
EXTENDING FROM 16N57W TO 29N49W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 330 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 50W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA ALONG 10N/11W TO NEAR 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE





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