[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 84.0W AT 07/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 95 NM ENE OF LIMON HONDURAS MOVING N AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. IDA HAS RE-EMERGED INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 83W-85W AND FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 80W-85W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS JUST TO THE SE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AND BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH DRAWING MOISTURE
AWAY FROM THE WAVE ITSELF. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT
IS IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
52W-56W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N22W 7N34W 6N43W 8N55W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-14W AND FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 22W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW AND SE COVERING THE W ATLC AND GULF
OF MEXICO GIVING MOST OF THE GULF NE TO E FLOW. THIS FLOW
FILTERS INTO THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N93W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR
19N95W TO 23N96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO TO 19N95W.
THE SURFACE FEATURES ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 88W-97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WESTWARD WITHIN 60 NM
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA E OF 88W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT IS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE
DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W AND COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
ATLC AS WELL. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 77W/78W S
OF 13N TO INLAND OVER E PANAMA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N FROM 73W-79W. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS DOTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE W ATLC W OF 65W ANCHORED ON A 1027
MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 26N65W INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W.
FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N56W EXTENDING SW TO 26N63W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 30N58W TO 22N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N62W TO BEYOND 32N54W. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF
26N W OF 52W. THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING AN  AXIS FROM
32N30W INTO THE TROPICS TO 16N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST
OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W COVERING
THE AREA FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN 36W-44W.

$$
WALLACE





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