[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 06/1500 UTC IS NEAR
15.0N 84.0W...OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST OF CABO GRACIAS
A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. IDA IS MOVING NORTH 6
KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER E HONDURAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM
16N-20N BETWEEN 81W-86W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ON AN SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
MAXIMUM. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 27W-35W.

A WEAK ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N20W 9N30W 11N53W TO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 27W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA NEAR 39N81W.
ANOTHER 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
25N102W. NE-E SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-35 KT OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF
94W. ELSEWHERE...THE E GULF HAS 20-25 KT WINDS WHILE THE NW GULF
HAS ONLY 10 KT WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S GULF S
OF 26N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF S OF 28N. EXPECT..SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS JUST INLAND OVER E HONDURAS. SEE
ABOVE. TRADEWINDS ARE BASICALLY 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 76W-81W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 68W-74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N76W.
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH
ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW FROM IDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT ...CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N61W
TO 26N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT.
A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT
38N28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AT 22N46W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 38W-43W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N28W.
OVER THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 8N20W.

$$
FORMOSA




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