[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 06/0600 UTC IS NEAR
14.1N 84.0W...OR ABOUT 40 MILES/70 KM TO THE WEST OF PUERTO
CABEZAS NICARAGUA. IDA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 4 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT LOTS OF RAIN
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N85W JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND THE COAST OF BELIZE/THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE MAP ANALYSIS
AT 06/0000 UTC ALONG 28W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. PRECIPITATION
THAT IS NEAR THIS WAVE IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED ALONG 40W/41W TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM
SIX HOURS AGO HAS OPENED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. PRECIPITATION
THAT IS NEAR THIS WAVE IS IN THE ITCZ.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WAS DROPPED FROM THE MAP ANALYSIS AS IT HAS
BECOME CAUGHT UP IN THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT IS AROUND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 9N13W TO 6N23W TO 11N39W 11N53W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N23W 12N30W 12N40W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN
37W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 21N92.5W.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE-FORCE
WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...
NEAR A 500 MB CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB. WEAKENING BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE FROM
THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N63W TO 15N65W TO
12N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W
AND 65W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE TROUGH.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 69W/70W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N68W 22N71W TO THE
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N71W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA...TO THE
NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 65W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG
31N67W 27N71W 25N78W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
33N44W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 27N30W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW HAS PERSISTED FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS TO THE
NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W.

$$
MT





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