[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N81W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM...FROM
30 PERCENT TO 50 PERCENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 16N64W 14N69W 12N70W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
12N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 7N11W TO 6N20W TO 7N31W TO 10N46W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 1W AND 2W...FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W
AND 15W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED
AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG 81W SIX HOURS AGO HAS
MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AND NOW IS ALONG THE LINE FROM A 24N77W
BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N78W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MOVES ACROSS HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA AND IN BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE BASE OF THE 24N77W 16N78W
TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 60W/61W FROM 10N TO 18N.
THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE HAD WESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE
LAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. LET US SEE IF IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY. EARLIER ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS THAT WERE FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W
EITHER HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AND/OR HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING
THEMSELVES.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT STARTS AT 31N70W AND EXTENDS TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W...PASSING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EVENTUALLY CURVING TO THE
NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN FLORIDA AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF 22N.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...GOING ALONG
THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND THEN CURVING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF
86W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER
THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 55W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 55W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 32N42W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N28W TO 10N24W. SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 22W AND 34W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A THIRD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 23N45W TO 11N46W. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM
21N TO 31N BETWEEN 38W AND 53W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W
AND 55W.

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net