[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N81W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
80W-83W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ON AN SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN
63W-71W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ON AN SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
MAXIMUM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 75W-79W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 6N20W 8N30W 6N36W 9N42W TO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
7W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
19W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
46W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 26N80W 24N82W 22N91W 19N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 92W-95W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
N OF THE FRONT TO 29N. PRESENTLY...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 21N N OF FRONT WITH NW-N WINDS 25-35 KT
SEAS 8-11 FT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONT
HAS NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. A TIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DRIFT SE AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE LOW...AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. WINDS ARE BASICALLY 10-15 KT
THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S
OF CUBA NEAR 21N81W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER HE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 16N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 16N...WHILE
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 16N TO INCLUDE
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N72W TO 30N74W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO 27N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONTS. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 70W-74W. A WEAK 1018
MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N65W. A SMALL SURFACE
TROUGH IS FURTHER SE FROM 27N60W TO 23N64W.A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 24N69W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N53W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
20N-25N BETWEEN 42W-49W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 35W-45W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN
27W-30W.

$$
FORMOSA



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