[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS ALONG 11N27W 7N31W. ANY NEARBY
PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS CLOSE TO THE
14N65W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS NOT EASY
TO KNOW IF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS RELATED MORE TO THE WAVE
OR MORE TO THE 14N65W CYCLONIC CENTER.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM COASTAL
COLOMBIA TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 11N15W TO 7N25W TO 8N31W 6N43W 9N57W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N61W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 16N. ONE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR 14N65W. CYCLONIC FLOW
IS WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM MAINLAND VENEZUELA ITS OFFSHORE ISLANDS BETWEEN 66W AND 67W
NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
10N66W IN NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH IS ALONG 17N84W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...AND IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA NEAR 11N82W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST TO THE EAST FROM THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AT 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THE CHANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT...
A STATIONARY FRONT STARTS AT 31N74W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EVENTUALLY CURVING TO THE NORTHERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SUPPORT FOR THIS
FRONT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE NORTH NEAR 33N74W. MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...GOING ALONG
THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND TEXAS...PURELY NORTHWARD...AND THEN CURVING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRY AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF
88W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA
TO THE WEST OF 59W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 20N53W
TO 12N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N57W 30N57W TO A 1013 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N62W...TO 23N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
50W AND 56W...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND FROM 11N TO 12N
BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. ONE SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 30N33W.
A SECOND SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 29N25W. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC CENTERS TO THE NORTH OF
28N. THESE TWO SMALL CYCLONIC CENTERS ARE CAUGHT UP IN A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH FROM 30N30W TO 8N26W.

$$
MT



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