[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT EXISTS BETWEEN
55W-64W MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS NOTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THIS SAME REGION IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
8N-16N BETWEEN 57W-67W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
EXHIBITS A LOW AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM ACROSS THE
FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE S OF 13N.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N30W 8N43W 11N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 29W-34W. DENSE OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180/200 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF
51W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM MELBOURNE TO NAPLES AND INTO
THE GULF ALONG 24N83W 22N92W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR
18N94W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT E OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N BETWEEN
90W-96W. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W ALONG 24N90W TO OVER NE FLORIDA
NEAR JACKSONVILLE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER AIR COVERS THE
NW PORTION OF GULF AS A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND
THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THERE ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES INFLUENCING THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING AND A NEWLY DEFINED 1010 MB LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
11N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
13N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N FROM JUST E OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH A SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W OVER
JAMAICA TO A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO W CUBA
NEAR 22N84W. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH
OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 67W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE UPPER LOW AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 80W-83W. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W
MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE S OF 17N E OF
68W OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N75W EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 73W. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
U.S. EAST COAST BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS N OF 30N. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 25N74W PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT S OF 30N E OF 60W AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
FARTHER EAST...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR 32N55W IS
RACING NORTHWARD BUT STILL SUPPORTING A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N59W. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIPS WELL SOUTH INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 16N BETWEEN
45W-61W. STRONG S TO SW UPPER FLOW E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
ALONG 52W IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 49W-56W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N57W 28N59W TO A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
25N62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH
OVER THE AZORES. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN SAHARA
NEAR 23N15W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW ACROSS THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO 10N30W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE



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