[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011150
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS THE SAME TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING THE 1001 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 40W AND 53W FOR AT LEAST THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT IS
EASILY POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W PROBABLY ARE RELATED
TO THE TROUGH AND THEY MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W...PASSING
THROUGH HONDURAS...TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE BELIZE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

...THE ITCZ...

12N15W 9N28W 10N48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W...AND
FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ONE-TIME HEALTHY LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE LAST FOUR DAYS HAS DIMINISHED IN
SIZE AND INFLUENCE. ONE CYCLONIC CENTER NOW IS IN SOUTHERN
BELIZE. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER STILL IS
APPARENT FROM THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR TO THE
WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 86W
AND 96W. SHOWERS REMAIN ALONG THE COAST FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST...AND FROM 23N89W
TO 18N93W. SHOWERS REMAIN IN WESTERN NICARAGUA IN AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT
HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN GEORGIA. THE FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WITH
THE FRONT COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD...
NARROWING TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
SURROUNDS THE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...CURVING TOWARD THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND FINALLY TO
THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. SHOWERS ARE ABOUT
100 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 94W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED TO THE
SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
INVERTED TROUGH FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHERN
COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 74W/75W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN IN THE AREA OF THE 500 MB INVERTED TROUGH SINCE
31/2245 UTC. 500 MB ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND BROAD 200 MB CYCLONIC
FLOW ON TOP OF THAT...MIXED IN WITH THE DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
FROM 24 HOURS AGO...COVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 32N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 35N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W.
THE TROUGH FROM THIS CENTER EVENTUALLY EXTENDS TO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N60W AND 13N78W. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE 1001 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
31N52W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N47W TO 24N48W...
CURVING TO 19N59W AND 21N67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

$$
MT



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