[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 272343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N21W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 33W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N W OF 35W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
12W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING THANKS TO
WIDESPREAD DRY SINKING AIR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE AIR IS
MOST STABLE OVER THE SE WATERS DUE TO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NEAR
THE TAIL END OF A BROAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND NW
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS W FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE N
GULF COAST PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW...EXCEPT SLY
TO 20 KT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST INFLUENCED BY A STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE S CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS DRY ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
MOISTEN SLIGHTLY BY SAT AS CARIBBEAN MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH
A REMNANT FRONT...SPREADS INTO THE SRN WATERS. THE NRN WATERS
WILL ALSO MOISTEN SOME AS A FRONT NEARS THE N GULF COAST
TOMORROW. THIS FRONT... HOWEVER...IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO ENTER
THE REGION AS SURFACE RIDGING MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

CARIBBEAN...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS FLATTENED ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH HAS GREATLY DECREASED THE MOISTURE ALOFT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS NARROW BANDS OF CLOUDS MOVING NE OVER THE S
CENTRAL AND SE WATERS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A REMNANT FRONT HAS
JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED FROM ERN CUBA TO HONDURAS. SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE STILL POOLING OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND NEARBY LAND AREAS ALONG AND TO THE W OF THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE ...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED
SHOWERS...STEERED BY THE TRADES...ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS. THESE MOISTURE PATCHES ARE A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED THAN THE TYPICAL REGIME FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...DUE TO A PAIR OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS. ONE OF THESE ARE
ALONG 69W/70W AND THE OTHER IS JUST W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A
SIMILAR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOVER OVER THE
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STATIONARY FROM 31N46W TO 26N61W THEN
CONTINUES AS A WEAKENING WARM FRONT TO ERN CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE
LIES N OF THE FRONT FROM E OF BERMUDA TO N FLORIDA. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM 32N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA IS INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN
60W-67W. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NEAR 27N66W ENHANCED BY A
NEWLY FORMED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
LIES W OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND IS PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR
SKIES W OF 74W. FARTHER E...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 4N52W NEWD TO 32N38W...PRODUCING A SUBSIDENT
INVERSION THAT IS KEEPING THE TRADE WIND CUMULUS CLUSTERS
SHALLOW WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION.

EAST ATLANTIC...
THE LARGE MID-UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THIS WEEK HAS NOW CUT OFF INTO A LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N28W WITH
AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 4N43W. AN UPPER JET
LIES TO THE E OF THE LOW EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR
8N34W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE
TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...THEN TURNS E ACROSS ALGERIA. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN FROM THE TROPICS GENERALLY FROM THE CAPE
VERDES NWD TO THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 22W. AT THE SFC...A 1027
MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N27W IS MAINTAINING NE/E 15-20 KT
TRADES...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER NLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
AFRICA N OF 19N DUE TO TYPICAL TROUGHING OVER THE CONTINENT.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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