[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S AND 180 NM
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-21W...WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 29W-36W AND S OF 1N W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS SHIFTED JUST E OF THE AREA OVER AND
OFFSHORE THE SE CONUS. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT ELY IN
THE E GULF THEN TURNING SLY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER
THE NW WATERS. THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HAS QUICKLY MODIFIED
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS WEEK...THOUGH
TODAY IS STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER THAN NORMAL OVER FLORIDA
AND THE ERN WATERS. SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BLOWING IN
WITH THE FLOW OVER THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS. THERE
MAY BE A FEW EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS...BUT ITS
NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING OVER THE
ERN WATERS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING VERY DRY AIR E OF
95W...PROVIDING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER. THE SFC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING E SETTING UP RETURN FLOW OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY
INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO LIE OVER THE CARIB.
THE BASE OF A WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM WRN CUBA TO THE
SW CARIB PROVIDING LIMITED SUPPORT FOR THE DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT FROM HAITI TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
ALONG 19N72W 15N83W. BEHIND THE FRONT...NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE
STILL OCCURRING DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA ALONG 31/32N. A LARGE BLOCKING
MID-UPPER RIDGE OVER AND E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS PREVENTED
FURTHER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. STRONG SWLY WINDS...BETWEEN
THE MID-UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE...IS PRODUCING AND TRANSPORTING A
SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM COLOMBIA TO THE MONA
PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS CAPPING
THE SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATCHES. THESE SHALLOW MOISTURE
PATCHES ARE MOST ORGANIZED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT AND OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER FLATTENING TROUGH LIES OVER MUCH OF THE WRN ATLC.
THE GREATEST DIG IN THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE FAR N WATERS ALONG 57W. THIS TROUGHING IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N54W TO 26N61W
THEN STATIONARY ACROSS HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND 150 NM W OF THE STATIONARY PORTION.
MODERATE TO STRONG SFC HIGH PRES IS BUILDING EWD BEHIND THE
FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U.S.
SE COAST.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING HAS NARROWED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING NE FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO
32N44W. SW WINDS ALOFT...BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING TO THE
W...IS ADVECTING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A
LINE FROM 19N68W TO 31N47W. THE ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH IS LOCATED N
OF THE AREA OVER THE AZORES...ANALYZED 1033 MB. THE E ATLC LIES
BENEATH A LARGE AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
EMBEDDED LOW NEAR 27N31W. DRY SINKING AIR LIES OVER MUCH OF THE
E ATLC SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ.
STRONG SLY WINDS ALOFT IS SHEARING CONVECTION OVER THE ITCZ
SPREADING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS NWD TO ABOUT 10N.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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