[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 1N30W EQ34W 1S46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 5W-9W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM
EQ-3N BETWEEN 9W-14W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 15W-17W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-25W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-1N
BETWEEN 42W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 34N84W PRODUCING
10-20 KT ELY TO SELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W
DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS
NOW OVER THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
83W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT...MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS
ALONG 21N75W 18N80W 15N83W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE FRONT.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EXTEND 200 NM N OF
THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.  A 1009 MB LOW IS INLAND
OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-11N
BETWEEN 74W-75W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF TRINIDAD NEAR 11N61W PRODUCING SLY FLOW OVER THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-76W.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS.  ALSO EXPECT AREAS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N62W
AND EXTENDS SW TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  GALE CONDITIONS ARE N OF 29N W OF
FRONT TO 75W IN NW WINDS.  A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC W OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N33W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 23N65W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG
26N29W 21N31W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.
A RIDGE IS BETWEEN 45W-70W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E
OF 45W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N26W.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 32N46W TO E
CUBA NEAR 21N75W WITH CONVECTION IN 24 HOURS.  GALE CONDITIONS
WILL MOVE N OF 31N WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA




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