[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1000 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-26W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 2S AND 36W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB SFC HIGH OVER CENTRAL
ALABAMA IS PRODUCING 15 TO 20 KT...20 TO 25 KT SOUTH OF
26N...RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC HIGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD LATER TODAY.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE PERSIST OVER
THE W GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW
BACKING UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRES. ALOFT...DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND LIMITING
CONVECTION TO FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST
GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NOW STRETCHES FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR
21N77W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W.
WEAK CONVECTION EXTENDS UP TO 60 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
STRONG NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WEAKER 15 TO 20 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE FRONT
TO STALL FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA ON WED BEFORE DISSIPATING
THURSDAY. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WHICH CONTINUE TO USHER IN LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY N OF 13N. ALOFT...SWLY FLOW AROUND AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N61W
IS ADVECTING HIGH CLOUDS/MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM PANAMA TO HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 09Z...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC
NEAR 31N66W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N70W CROSSING THE BAHAMAS NEAR
23N74W AND MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. A BAND OF
CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS UP TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATER
TODAY BETWEEN 75W AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 29N. TRANQUIL
WEATHER PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DUE TO A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N40W.
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FARTHER EAST... A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 26N27W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTER SOUTHWARD TO 21N27W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC. A
SECOND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 11N42W. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO
AFRICA S OF A LINE FROM 10N36W TO 24N16W.


$$
WADDINGTON





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