[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 4N13W 1N26W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 32N TO 1S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-33W
AND WITHIN 240 NM N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL DEFINED MID-UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY
CLEARED THE REGION EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE NW PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN SURGING SWD OVER S MEXICO E OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH
LINGERING MID TO UPPER MOISTURE ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS
PRODUCING MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
FAR SE PORTION...MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 93W
DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGING FLOW AND UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
COAST AND INLAND OVER MEXICO. STRONG N TO NE WINDS...PRODUCED BY
THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A 1032 MB HIGH OVER SW
ARKANSAS...HAS ADVECTED A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF LATER TODAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE WRN CARIB IS
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING SFC FRONTAL TROUGH FROM WRN CUBA TO THE
NE PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN SWD JUST OFF THE COAST OF
BELIZE. A SFC TROUGH LIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 17N84W TO
CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT AND 90 NM OF THE TROUGH LINE. A STRONGER
FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SRN GULF...WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER TODAY INCREASING NLY WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND IT OVER
THE NW PORTION. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE SRN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. FAIRLY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND SHORTWAVE...IS ADVECTING A BROKEN SWATH OF MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 70W-83W S OF 15N AND 68W-77W N OF
15N. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE STREAMING NW...AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF MODERATE TO STRONG
ATLC RIDGING...OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND FAR NE CARIB WATERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LIE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE
REGION. THE LEADING FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N70W TO A 1014
MB LOW JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N76W TO WRN CUBA. THE
MAIN BOUNDARY LIES JUST BEHIND ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N74W TO
S FLORIDA. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT...E OF THE ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER
SHORTWAVE...AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE SFC FEATURES IS
PRODUCING ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS NW OF A LINE FROM 32N68W TO
21N75W. LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN STRIKES IN THESE
CLOUDS SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS MOST
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 74W-79W.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER
THE FAR N WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE S SIDE OF STRENGTHENING
LOW PRES.

A DEEP LAYER MID TO UPPER RIDGE LIES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC. THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDS NWD FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG
55W-60W. THE SFC HIGH IS ANALYZED 1032 MB NEAR 36N43W. THESE
FEATURES ARE SUPPLYING THE REGION WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. THE
E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE MID-UPPER TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED
SMALL-SCALE LOW NEAR 28N32W ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FORMING WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE CENTER. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING 1014 MB
LOW NEAR 27N24W IS MOVING SW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO
ITS N. THIS LOW HAS A DISSIPATED OCCLUDED BOUNDARY BASED ON ITS
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE. SCATTERED SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY N OF THE FAINT TRIPLE POINT...N OF 26N E OF 28W.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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