[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N9W 4N20W 1N30W 2N45W 1N52W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE EQUATOR AND APPEARS TO BE A SECOND
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE S OF 7N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA
BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH TO TAMPA INTO THE GULF CONTINUING W TO
INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI MOSTLY DELINEATED BY A
DROP IN DEW POINT AS THE WIND OVER MOST OF THE GULF IS
NORTHERLY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF
OF THE U.S. TO OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE NW ATLC. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS
ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI TO NEAR KEY WEST CONTINUING TO
23N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE
TROUGH TO OVER CUBA AND OVER FLORIDA FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO
MIAMI. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT COVERS THE W GULF
N OF 22N W OF 90W AND IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THAT AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF TRINIDAD WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR WITH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE OVERRIDING
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE FORM OF THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS. A
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG NE
TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE TROUGH TO OVER W CUBA AND MOVING INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM E CUBA
NEAR 21N78W TO THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S. EXTENDS INTO THE FAR W ATLC
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N75W SW
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. AN ILL-DEFINED 1012 MB LOW IS
OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING W ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI. AN EASTERN COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N67W SW TO 28N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-27N W OF 76W TO THE FLORIDA
COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
OVER S FLORIDA FROM MIAMI TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE
AREA N OF 15N FROM 35W-7W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR
32N49W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W
WITH A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N23W AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 26N20W TO 18N29W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N
OF 27N FROM THE FRONT TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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