[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N20W EQ27W 1S30W 3S40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-16W...
FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 17W-20W...FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 23W-35W...AND
FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 30W-36W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N85W MOVING E TOWARDS FLORIDA.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N88W
18N89W.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ALONG 25N83W 25N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 82W-85W.  NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE RECORDED S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 25N-26N
BETWEEN 83W-85W.   SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG
THE WARM FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN
80W-82W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POPPING UP OVER INLAND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTS.  CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF WHERE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 25N AND W OF 88W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO
TRAVERSE CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.  EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER S
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
FOLLOW OVER S FLORIDA WITH MORE CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A 1008
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE N CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 80W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.  EXPECT...INCREASED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
W CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS W OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N68W.  A WEAK COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N44W AND EXTENDS SW TO 29N50W
26N60W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 26N70W.  A WARM FROM
FURTHER CONTINUES TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTS.  A 1022 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N56W.  A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N29W AND EXTENDS S ALONG 30N27W
24N27W 18N37W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT
E OF 33W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 18N BETWEEN 35W-55W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC HAS ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW.   EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N67W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W IN 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO BECOME A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 20W IN 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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