[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM CENTRAL LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 2N20W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO 2S30W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W TO 3S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 7N EAST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GUATEMALA ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NORTH
OF 23N AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF 90W EXCEPT FOR
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND A SMALL AREA JUST WEST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTH OF 27N EAST OF 90W. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W...THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 24N88W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO 19N88W IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA...THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA SOUTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W...AND FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.
THE FORECAST ULTIMATELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FOR THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO GAIN SOME MOMENTUM AND MOVE NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N79W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...CURVING ACROSS COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 14N...AND INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 50W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE COVERS PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE BAND
OF MOISTURE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THAT IS ON TOP OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS IN SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TRADEWINDS...EAST
OF 80W NORTH OF 12N67W 13N70W 13N75W 12N78W 10N80W...AND SOUTH
OF 18N WEST OF 80W. LIGHT WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY
TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N44W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF THE RIDGE...
TOWARD THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS NORTH OF THE
AREA NEAR 36N51W. THE DEEP LAYER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 29N57W TO 27N63W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 27N63W TO 25N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W...
AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 25N53W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
33N75W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 24N80W FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO 26N70W TO 28N60W
TO 30N51W BEYOND 33N47W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT...NOW PASSING THROUGH 32N31W
TO 28N30W 24N34W 21N43W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A WARM FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N28W TO 28N27W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 25W AND 26W...FROM
29N TO 31N BETWEEN 28W AND 29W...AND NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 23W
AND 27W.

$$
MT




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