[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 38W...AND GOING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S46W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF 6N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT
TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT NOW PASSES THROUGH
BERMUDA TO 29N70W TO ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 24N78W TO NORTHWESTERN
COASTAL CUBA TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N86W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WESTERN
HONDURAS...CURVING ACROSS SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF 20N87W 16N83W...AND IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE ENTIRE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NORTHWEST OF
THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WEST OF 50W IS COURTESY OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N61W.
A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 25N61W INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N78W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE LINE THROUGH 14N60W TO 13N69W 13N74W. THIS PHENOMENON IS THE
RESULT OF THE 32N55W 16N78W RIDGE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WIND FLOW IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD.
THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ROUGHLY IS FROM 11N TO
14N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KT
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N EAST OF 80W NORTHEAST
WINDS TO 20 KT SEAS TO 8 FT EXCEPT TO 12 FT NORTHERLY SWELL IN
EXPOSED NORTHEASTERN PASSAGES. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAHSFAT2
FOR EXACT DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE CENTRAL-TO-
EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 25N38W 20N41W...
DISSIPATING FROM 20N41W TO 17N46W AND 15N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 29W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 27N TO 30N
BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS
IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA...AND PASSES THROUGH 16N46W
22N30W BEYOND 25N20W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TROUGH.

$$
MT




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