[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200608
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W 1N30W...IN BETWEEN
THE EQUATOR AND 1N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
AT 39W...AND GOING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF 30N
AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE CURRENT MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE AREA IS A RESULT OF THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO
25N87W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
INTO MEXICO EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STATIONARY
FRONT STARTS IN MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND CONTINUES TO 21N99W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OF MEXICO ALONG 94W INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN A FEW CLUSTERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA FROM
20N89W TO 18N89.5W TO 16N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHING FLORIDA...ALONG 26N86W 27N85W
29N83W BEYOND 31N82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 54W...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WEST OF 54W IS COURTESY OF
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE FROM EASTERN CUBA BEYOND 32N70W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS THROUGH 15N60W TO 14N62W. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD INTO THE ATMOSPHERE HAS SPREAD WELL
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BEHIND THIS MOST RECENT
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN MAINLY IN THE 70'S F WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60'S F IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER BIG STORY IS THE
TREMENDOUS NORTHERLY SWELLS AFFECTING THESE ISLANDS FROM THE
CONTINUOUS FETCH DRIVEN BY A LARGE LINGERING AND ONCE VERY
POWERFUL NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF 70W IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPERIENCING A STRONGLY SUBSIDENT MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA AND A 1024 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH NEAR 29N67W
IS HELPING TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE TRADEWINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN ABOUT
24 HOURS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 54W...
BROAD DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 24N44W 19N50W 17N53W...DISSIPATING
FROM 17N53W TO 15N60W AND 14N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N61W 18N50W 23N47W 28N42W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH.

$$
MT




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