[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190521
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N19W 1N26W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 31W TO 3S40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 1W-12W AND
21W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 20W TO THE
COAST OF W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME ACTIVE AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
GULF AT 19/0300 UTC NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER EXTENDING S
ALONG 27N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO. VERY
NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 45 NM
E OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO
INLAND OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW IS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLC AND COUPLED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE FAR W GULF IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
N/CENTRAL GULF...SEE MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS. A BROAD HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF E OF THE FRONT AND THE E
U.S. ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN
INTERESTING NOTE...MIGRATORY BIRDS ARE OBSERVED ON RADAR
COVERING THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM CUBA ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
INTO FLORIDA BAY AND AS FAR N AS FORT MYERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN...A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC DIPS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN CREATING A SHEAR AXIS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES TO S OF
JAMAICA NEAR 16N80W. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE N LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO JUST S OF HISPANIOLA WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N E OF 70W INTO THE ATLC
WATERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. DANGEROUS LARGE N SWELL ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF
THE REGION COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W INTO THE FAR E GULF OF
MEXICO. A STORM SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA N OF 17N FROM 40W-70W AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N43W ALONG
23N49W TO THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES
NEAR STATIONARY INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N
AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BOTH E AND W OF THE FRONT...SEE
MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N50W TO 26N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N FROM 48W-56W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR COVER MOST OF THE REGION THUS LIMITING ANY FURTHER
AREA OF SHOWERS. ZONAL WSW UPPER FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC E OF 40W AND SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC E OF 45W
AND ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net