[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181027
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N14W 1N24W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 31W TO 4S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-5W. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
18W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER W TEXAS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E VIRGINIA COVERS
THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC AND IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
W GULF. HEAVY SHOWERS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN INLAND OVER
TEXAS MOVING NNE TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATER TODAY PRECEDING THE
FRONT. ABROAD HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND
THE E U.S. INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 86W. CURRENTLY
LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING BANKED ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN
ALABAMA AND LOUISIANA IN RESPONSE TO THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
SURFACE RIDGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 17N W OF 75W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
REMAIN OVER THE AREA USHERING IN SOME SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 15N. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LITTLE OTHER CHANGE IS
EXPECT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E
VIRGINIA COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA N OF 17N FROM 45-70W AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N46W ALONG 24N53W OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W DISSIPATING ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA.
THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND IS NO LONGER
AS WELL DEFINED AS PREVIOUSLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT AND GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE BOTH E AND W OF THE FRONT...SEE MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE
DETAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER MOST OF THE
REGION THUS LIMITING ANY FURTHER AREA OF SHOWERS. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 27N E OF 35W. SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE E ATLC E OF 40W AND ANCHORED BY A1025 MB HIGH JUST SW OF THE
AZORES.

$$
WALLACE



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