[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170458
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO 3S43W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-6W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
32W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW ATLC
INTO THE N/CENTRAL ATLC DRAGGING AN COLD FRONT ACROSS S FLORIDA
NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO NAPLES ALONG 25N86W THEN PULLING UP NEAR
STATIONARY TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. ALL OF
THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND SEVERE WEATHER IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH A THIN LOW LEVEL CLOUD BAND THE ONLY INDICATION OF A FRONT
ACROSS THE GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR LEAVING THE GULF RATHER CLEAR
AGAIN TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BEING
DRAWN FURTHER N AHEAD OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT MOVING INTO
THE NW GULF LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST E OF THE
ABC ISLANDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING
THE AREA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER THE AREA
USHERING IN SMALL CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 15N-18N W OF 65W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECT ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE NW ATLC INTO THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC DIPPING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N
FROM 59W-75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION
E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W ALONG 28N73W ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR FORT
LAUDERDALE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS MOVING
EASTWARD RAPIDLY E OF 70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N68W TO BEYOND 32N60W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ALSO COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC AS WELL AS THE W TROPICAL ATLC
BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THAT AREA.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO
THE E ATLC N OF 18N FROM 25W-50W WITH TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS.
THE WEAKEST IS CENTERED NEAR 25N43W WITH A SECOND STRONGER ON
CENTERED NE NEAR 30N30W. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIP
INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N25W TO 26N33W BUT DUE TO THE RELATIVE
DRY AIR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE ATLC E OF COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC WITH A
PERSISTENT 1020 MB HIGH N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 23N63W.

$$
WALLACE




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