[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161031
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N4W 3N12W 2N29W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO 3S42W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN 40W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 21W ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 1.5N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND IS NOW ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA DRAGGING AN COLD FRONT ACROSS S GEORGIA
ENTERING THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA WHERE IT WEAKENS
RAPIDLY INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W. ALL OF THE ASSOCIATED
ENERGY AND SEVERE WEATHER IS WELL E OF THE FRONT OVER THE W
ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR LEAVING THE GULF RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF
92W AND OVER NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 86W AS WELL AS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
GULF LATE TODAY WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NW GULF LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST N OF THE
ABC ISLANDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING
THE AREA. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER THE AREA.
EVEN THE TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATCHES APPEAR SUPPRESSED THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY ONE AREA HAVING SOME SIGNIFICANCE NE OF
HONDURAS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 81W-84W...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW IS COUPLED WITH THE WESTERN UPPER FLOW CONVERGE.
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
MAJOR FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF ON TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL E OF THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST GROSSING GEORGIA INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO. THESE STORMS
ARE N OF 31N FROM 65W-75W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING
THESE STORMS WHICH IS ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF THE
REGION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE LEEWARD/
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N46W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 26W-40W WITH THE ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N30W TO 28N34W CONTINUING
AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. BROAD BUT WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 70W AND
BRIDGING THE FRONT/TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC. A BENIGN
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC BUT IS PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

$$
WALLACE



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