[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N7W 3N13W 3N22W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN ALONG 3S37W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W.
WIDESPREAD CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 11W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E U.S. INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO 26N85W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 125 KT
EXTENDS WITHIN 90 NM SPREADING TO 150 NM FROM 23N96W ACROSS NE
FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING FROM NE
FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF HAS ENCOUNTERED MODERATE SW SURFACE
FLOW AND THE JETSTREAM TO FORM A SURFACE TROUGH/SHEAR LINE AT
14/2100 UTC EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER ALONG
26N84W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN NAPLES AND FORT
MYERS TO WEST PALM BEACH. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ARE FROM
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE SAT CLIPPING THE N GULF AND
EXITING LATE SUN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 88W LEAVING THAT AREA CLEAR
THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDS N INTO THE W ATLC. WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN ACROSS THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN LIGHT/
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
COVERS MOST OF THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE EXCEPTION IS TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER NE VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING
GENERATED AND MAY DRIFT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC. A
JETSTREAM IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING
THE AREA WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT N OF A LINE FROM ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG 27N69W TO 22N50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED OVER THE S
FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE MOVING OVER THE FAR W ATLC AND
COUPLED WITH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEING GENERATED OVER THE
NE GULF COVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 78W. THE WEAK
LOW/FRONT THAT WAS IN THE W ATLC HAS DISSIPATED TO A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N70W TO JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N74W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
22N FROM 40W-60W WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
AREA THROUGH 32N41W ALONG 25N49W TO 25N56W WEAKENING TO 30N73W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS BRIDGING THE FRONT WITH A 1020 MB HIGH N OF
THE FRONT NEAR 33N60W AND A 1019 MB HIGH S OF THE FRONT NEAR
22N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS E OF
28W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE




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