[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT
30W THEN ALONG 1S40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 11W-14W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
18W-25W...AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 25W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 25N82W.  10-15 KT SELY SURFACE FLOW COVERS MOST
OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 89W-91W MOVING
E.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
AXIS ALONG 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS
WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE OVER THE REST OF THE GULF.  EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE QUICKLY E WITH CONVECTION TO
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N75W WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A 130 KT UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF AND N FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO A
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N VENEZUELA...THE ABC
ISLANDS...AND N COLOMBIA.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE NE
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 78W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO NEAR 11N61W.  A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW TO BELIZE.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
27N73W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W.  A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 29N68W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS E ALONG 29N60W 32N50W.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N60W.  ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N46W.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N27W 28N34W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A RIDGE IS N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  A NARROW TROUGH IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 15W-40W.  EXPECT
THE SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES TO MOVE QUICKLY E DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA






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