[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130444
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N14W 1N25W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 30W TO 2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA
E OF 10W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 7N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-14W...AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 14W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS MOVING OVER THE W GULF W
OF 92W. DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE SE U.S. AND THE
GULF N OF 22N E OF 92W WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT CLIPPING
THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVER NW CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A
REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
HIGH ALONG THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA 29N90W. LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEING BANKED ALONG THE SE
MOUNTAINS OF THE MEXICO AND IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. WEAK JETSTREAM WITH WINDS
FROM 90 TO 100 KT IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITHIN 150 NM OF
25N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MODERATE NE TO
E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER E CUBA AND HAITI
USHERED IN ON THE TRADE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE
U.S. IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N69W TO A 1013 MB LOW OFF THE E
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N79W INTO THE SE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM S OF THE FRONT FROM THE LOW TO 77W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
INCLUDES THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N38W TO 28N48W WHERE IT
WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO PULL N TO 31N61W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 30N36W TO 20N40W BUT DUE TO THE
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THAT DOMINATES THE
AREA THERE IS ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PRESENT. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS RETREATING NE WITH THE 1025 MB HIGH OFF
THE COAST OF PORTUGAL.

$$
WALLACE


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