[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 3N16W 1N25W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 34W TO 3S44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE COAST OF SW AFRICA TO S OF THE
EQUATOR W OF 10W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 10W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E U.S. AND THE GULF N OF
25N WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST INTO THE GULF JUST S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ALONG 24N86W OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W THEN S
MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A REMNANT STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE ACROSS
THE N GULF LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SE
OF THE FRONT. THE S GULF IS DOMINATED BY THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA W UPPER
FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT
ANCHORED ALONG THE E TEXAS COAST BETWEEN HOUSTON AND CORPUS
CHRISTI. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING BANKED ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO AND THE FAR SW GULF TO THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS FROM 90 TO 130
KT IS ACROSS THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE
GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN IN THE W ATLC ON LATE IN THE
DAY INTO TONIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF
ON SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MODERATE NE TO
E TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF 18N FROM S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
68W W OF JAMAICA TO NEAR 81W USHERED IN ON THE TRADE WINDS.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E U.S.
IS MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A 1013 MB LOW OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
30N80W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 31N77W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE WARM FRONT FROM 27N-32N
BETWEEN 73W-78W. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N47W TO 27N63W WHERE IT WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NE OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
NEAR 27N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN AND
S GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 22N45W TO 15N48W BUT DUE TO THE MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THAT DOMINATES THE AREA THERE IS
ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PRESENT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC E OF 35W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. AN
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 12N24W AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD AND COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC E
OF 25W.

$$
WALLACE





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