[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM NORTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 3N16W 1N20W 1N30W 1N40W...
TO THE EQUATOR AT 43W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S50W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 7N EAST OF 53W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 71W...AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...
FROM TWO DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT WAS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA SIX HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
NORTHEASTWARD...FOLLOWED BY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.
THE TROUGH STILL IS STEERING THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT
TO PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 71W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVING AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA COMBINES WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE BECAUSE
OF THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO YESTERDAY NOW PASSES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N71W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W...
TO CUBA NEAR 22N77W...CUTTING ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 20N81W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N81W TO
18N84W ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS...INTO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N84W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM
TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N70W 25N76W...
AND WITHIN 280 NM TO 320 NM NORTHWEST OF 23N75W 18N80W 16N85W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 71W...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CUTS INTO THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WEST OF 71W THANKS TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. CLUSTERS OF
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ENTERING THE
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHERN HAITI...AND SOUTH OF 17N
WEST OF 73W IN BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W....

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM A WEAKENING
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N35W...TO 25N50W TO 21N60W
TO 13N69W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS ENDED. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
HAS WEAKENED COMPARATIVELY TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
27N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 33W
AND 35W. OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 29N35W CYCLONIC CENTER AND 29N35W
13N69W TROUGH.

$$
MT


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