[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA TO 2N20W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W...TO 1S30W...3S40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 3S50W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN
4W AND 6W...AND IN SMALL CELLS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 1W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 1W AND 2W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5N
BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE SOUTH
OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 100W FROM TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL MEXICO IS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
A SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N90W
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N/24N...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO
MEXICO NEAR 27N105W. A TROUGH CONTINUES TO 32N107W. A WARM FRONT
GOES FROM THE 1003 MB LOW CENTER TO 27N84W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 27N84W ACROSS FLORIDA TO 28N80W...AND BEYOND
32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W SOUTH OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 28N86W 26N90W 22N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CLOUDY SKIES ARE NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
EVERYWHERE WEST OF 65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 65W...THANKS TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP
LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. WIDESPREAD DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
UPPER SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR PATCHY CIRRUS SOUTH OF 12N. BROKEN LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN
30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N60W 18N65W BEYOND 20N69W...
A REMNANT CLOUD LINE FROM AN EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHER
CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W SOUTHWEST OF THE 14N60W 20N69W LINE...BETWEEN 70W AND
82W NORTH OF 12N. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN
COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CHANGE IS A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN....

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N37W...TO 20N50W TO 15N60W IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
28N37W IS HELPING TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE WEST OF
THE LOW...PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 27N TO 35N BETWEEN 31W AND 43W.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW FROM 27N38W TO
31N37W TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 30N34W. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM
30N34W TO 28N30W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM 30N34W TO 24N34W AND
19N41W. THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ALREADY-DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM A FEW DAYS AGO IS
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N40W 16N50W 14N60W 20N69W.

$$
MT




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