[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHEASTERN LIBERIA TO 4N10W 2N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W...TO 2S44W AND 3S50W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 45W AND 47W...
FROM 1S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUAT0R TO 5N
BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 0.5N TO
1.5N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W...AND FROM 2S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
23W AND 25W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN
20W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 31W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO WESTERN MEXICO TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN NEAR 19N111W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...CONCENTRATED AROUND
A WARM FRONT ALONG 26N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W AT 06/1500 UTC.
A COLD FRONT FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE TEXAS
BIG BEND MAY REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF  MEXICO WATERS BY
SUNSET TODAY. THIS FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BY 08/1200 UTC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA. SURFACE WIND FLOW IS EASTERLY BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA HEADING
TOWARD AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN PATCHES OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT
THE AREA.. MOSTLY NORTH OF 13N EAST OF 84W. THE SOUTHWESTERN
END OF A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH REACHES INTO THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT CLOUD LINE FROM
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO CUT THROUGH THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CORNER THROUGH 19N60W BEYOND 20N63W.
TRADE WINDS REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TYPICAL ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS MAY REACH 30 KT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN....

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM A WATER VAPOR
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N37W...TO 23N51W TO
18N61W IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 1006 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N37W IS HELPING TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE
WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW...PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAHSFAT2 FOR
MORE DETAILS. A COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 26N37W 24N40W 26N44W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT...BREAKS APART
FROM A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT...FROM 30N31W TO 20N35W TO
16N47W. THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE CONTINUES FROM 16N47W TO 16N50W
19N60W 20N63W TO 26N67W.

$$
MT



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